All matches

VfB Stuttgart 1893 — Borussia VfL Mönchengladbach, Bundesliga

Germany, Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart 1893
2.5LLWWL
—
Borussia VfL Mönchengladbach
1.4LLLLW
Outcome probability
671914
VfB Stuttgart 189367%Draw19%Borussia VfL Mönchengladbach14%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1VfB Stuttgart 189367%1.50—
XDraw19%5.19—
2Borussia VfL Mönchengladbach14%7.04—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes63%

ours 1.59

No37%

ours 2.71

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricVfB Stuttgart 1893Borussia VfL MönchengladbachCombined
Goals scored0.171.001.17
Conceded0.502.673.17
Corners10.012.011.0
Cards1.03.04.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    VfB Stuttgart 1893Borussia VfL Mönchengladbach
    4Matches in 14 days2
    3Days of rest5.1
    15Table position18
    56.50%Possession47.50%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    VfB Stuttgart 1893 look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 67%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 2.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

VfB Stuttgart 1893

  • homeBVB 09 Borussia Dortmund0:1
  • awayTSG 1899 Hoffenheim1:2
  • homeViking FK3:1
  • home1. FC Köln4:1
  • awayFC Bayern München1:5

Borussia VfL Mönchengladbach

  • home1. FSV Mainz 053:4
  • awaySC Freiburg0:5
  • homeSV 07 Elversberg3:4
  • awayRasen Ballsport Leipzig0:3
  • homeTSG 1899 Hoffenheim4:0

Head to head

  • 01/25/26Bundesliga3:0
  • 08/30/25Bundesliga1:0
  • 02/01/25Bundesliga1:2
  • 09/14/24Bundesliga3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
131. FC Köln41126:94
14TSG 1899 Hoffenheim41037:103
15VfB Stuttgart 189341036:93
16Hamburger SV41032:133
171. FC Union Berlin40134:171
18Borussia VfL Mönchengladbach40046:160

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.