All matches

Hamburger SV — VfB Stuttgart 1893, Bundesliga

Germany, Bundesliga

Hamburger SV
1.9WLLLD
—
VfB Stuttgart 1893
2.5LLWWL
Outcome probability
212455
Hamburger SV21%Draw24%VfB Stuttgart 189355%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Hamburger SV21%4.81—
XDraw24%4.16—
2VfB Stuttgart 189355%1.81—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.73

No42%

ours 2.38

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHamburger SVVfB Stuttgart 1893Combined
Goals scored0.501.331.83
Conceded2.330.833.16
Corners9.211.510.3
Cards1.60.82.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Hamburger SVVfB Stuttgart 1893
    7Days of rest2.8
    1Matches in 14 days2
    41.40%Possession58.30%
    16Table position15
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, VfB Stuttgart 1893 still look stronger — an away win is rated at 55%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 11.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Hamburger SV

  • home1. FC Köln2:1
  • awayRasen Ballsport Leipzig0:5
  • home1. FSV Mainz 050:5
  • awayBVB 09 Borussia Dortmund0:2
  • awayBayer 04 Leverkusen1:1

VfB Stuttgart 1893

  • homeBVB 09 Borussia Dortmund0:1
  • awayTSG 1899 Hoffenheim1:2
  • homeViking FK3:1
  • home1. FC Köln4:1
  • awayFC Bayern München1:5

Head to head

  • 04/12/26Bundesliga0:4
  • 11/30/25Bundesliga2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
131. FC Köln41126:94
14TSG 1899 Hoffenheim41037:103
15VfB Stuttgart 189341036:93
16Hamburger SV41032:133
171. FC Union Berlin40134:171
18Borussia VfL Mönchengladbach40046:160

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.