1. FC Köln — Borussia VfL Mönchengladbach, Bundesliga

Germany, BundesligaOctober 11 at 01:30 PM

1. FC Köln

1.7LDLWL

—

Borussia VfL Mönchengladbach

1.4LLLLW

Outcome probability

422731

1. FC Köln42%Draw27%Borussia VfL Mönchengladbach31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

11. FC Köln42%2.39—

XDraw27%3.76—

2Borussia VfL Mönchengladbach31%3.18—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes63%

ours 1.58

No37%

ours 2.73

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

Metric1. FC KölnBorussia VfL MönchengladbachCombined

Goals scored1.331.833.16

Conceded2.833.176.00

Corners12.010.711.3

Cards1.83.04.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
1. FC KölnBorussia VfL Mönchengladbach
13Table position18
49.20%Possession49.50%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
1. FC Köln look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 42%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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