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Borussia Monchengladbach 3:4 Mainz 05, Bundesliga: result, stats and how the prediction went

Result and how the prediction went

Germany, BundesligaMatch finished

3:4HT 1:2
1.8LLWLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
35%27%37%
Borussia MonchengladbachPrice 3.2235%DrawPrice 3.9027%Mainz 05Price 2.2337%

Line-upsThe data provider has not sent line-ups for this match.

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

2.00xG1.89
47Possession, %53
21Shots17
7Shots on target8
6Corners4
6Yellow cards5
0Red cards0
12Fouls14
0Offsides2

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

3 of 3
Main predictions landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast types: landed 68 of 99void — 1
  • Match result Landed
    Mainz 0537%
  • Total goals Landed
    Over 2.551%
  • Both teams to score Landed
    Yes56%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Borussia Monchengladbach35%31%2.853.22+4.5
XDraw27%25%3.653.90+2.3
2Mainz 0537%44%2.672.23-6.8

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Form and context

Borussia Monchengladbach

  • homePaderborn0:0
  • awayStuttgart3:2
  • homeHoffenheim1:2
  • awayKoln1:2
  • homeMainz 053:4

Mainz 05

  • awayElversberg1:4
  • homeWerder Bremen2:3
  • awaySchalke 041:0
  • homeBayer Leverkusen3:4
  • awayBorussia Monchengladbach4:3

Head to head

  • 09/19/26Bundesliga3:4
  • 04/19/26Bundesliga1:1
  • 12/05/25Bundesliga1:0
  • 03/07/25Bundesliga1:3
  • 10/25/24Bundesliga1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7Elversberg841316:1613
9Mainz 05831417:1710
10Augsburg823318:159
11Stuttgart830514:159
12Hoffenheim830514:169
13Koln82339:129
14Paderborn82336:99
15Hamburger SV83057:199
16Union Berlin81437:197
17Schalke 0481344:96

Full breakdown

Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.