Borussia VfL Mönchengladbach — TSG 1899 Hoffenheim, Bundesliga

Germany, BundesligaOctober 18 at 03:30 PM

Borussia VfL Mönchengladbach

1.4LLLLW

—

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

1.9LLWLL

Outcome probability

292645

Borussia VfL Mönchengladbach29%Draw26%TSG 1899 Hoffenheim45%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Borussia VfL Mönchengladbach29%3.43—

XDraw26%3.85—

2TSG 1899 Hoffenheim45%2.23—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes66%

ours 1.51

No34%

ours 2.97

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBorussia VfL MönchengladbachTSG 1899 HoffenheimCombined

Goals scored1.670.832.50

Conceded2.671.504.17

Corners11.812.011.9

Cards3.22.35.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Borussia VfL MönchengladbachTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
7.1Days of rest2.9
1Matches in 14 days2
18Table position14
46.80%Possession59.00%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim still look stronger — an away win is rated at 45%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 4.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context