All matches

Stuttgart — Atletico Madrid, UEFA Champions League

Europe, UEFA Champions League

Stuttgart
2.5LLWWL
—
Atletico Madrid
3.2WWWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
42%25%33%
Stuttgart42%Draw25%Atletico Madrid33%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Stuttgart42%2.37—
XDraw25%4.08—
2Atletico Madrid33%3.00—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes63%

ours 1.58

No37%

ours 2.73

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricStuttgartAtletico MadridCombined
Goals scored0.671.502.17
Conceded0.670.170.84
Corners9.38.08.7
Cards0.71.32.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

StuttgartAtletico Madrid

VfB Stuttgart 1893 42%, Club Atlético de Madrid 33%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.

VfB Stuttgart 1893 42%Draw 24%Club Atlético de Madrid 33%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 11.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Stuttgart

  • homeBorussia Dortmund0:1
  • awayHoffenheim1:2
  • homeViking3:1
  • homeKoln4:1
  • awayBayern Munich1:5

Atletico Madrid

  • homeReal Madrid2:1
  • homeOsasuna4:0
  • awayReal Sociedad3:0
  • awayLiverpool1:2
  • awayAthletic Bilbao0:3

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
31Manchester United11004:03
32Como11004:13
33Stuttgart11003:13
34Sporting CP11003:13
35Manchester City11002:03
36Real Betis11003:23
37Lens11003:23
38Aston Villa11003:23
39Borussia Dortmund11003:23
40Liverpool11002:13
41Real Madrid11002:13
42Arsenal11001:03
43LASK31025:53
44Lech Poznan21015:53
45Omonia21011:13
46Celtic21014:53
47Vardar21013:43
48Riga21013:43
49KuPS41034:63
50Floriana21013:53
51Sparta Prague21012:43
52Shakhtar Donetsk10101:11
53Roma10101:11
54PSV10101:11
55Union Saint-Gilloise20115:61
56Flora20114:51
57Thun20113:41
58Drita20113:41
59ETO Gyor20112:31
60Gornik Zabrze20111:21
61Olympiakos20111:21
62Inter Escaldes20112:41
63Borac Banja Luka20111:51
64Petrocub20112:71
65Slavia Prague10012:30
66Lille10012:30
67Villarreal10012:30
68Club Brugge10012:30
69Inter Milan10011:20
70Atletico Madrid10011:20
71Napoli10010:10
72Atert Bissen20022:40

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.