Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.76
No43%
ours 2.31
All matches
—
Rayo Vallecano — Celta Vigo, La Liga
Spain, La Liga
Rayo Vallecano
2.4DWLWL
Celta Vigo
2.2WLDDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
48%26%27%
Rayo Vallecano48%Draw26%Celta Vigo27%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Rayo Vallecano2.10—
XDraw3.92—
2Celta Vigo3.71—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricRayo VallecanoCelta VigoCombined
Goals scored0.670.831.50
Conceded1.000.001.00
Corners10.76.08.3
Cards2.72.04.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Rayo VallecanoCelta Vigo
Rayo Vallecano 48%, Real Club Celta de Vigo 27%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
Rayo Vallecano 48%Draw 26%Real Club Celta de Vigo 27%
1st half
41 · 38 · 21
2nd half
32 · 38 · 30
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: Home or draw
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Rayo Vallecano
- awayOsasuna1:1
- homeEspanyol2:1
- awayReal Madrid1:4
- homeRacing Santander3:2
- awayBarcelona2:5
Celta Vigo
- homeRacing Santander5:0
- awayOmonia0:1
- homeMalaga1:1
- awayGetafe1:1
- awayReal Sociedad0:0
Head to head
- 01/18/26La Liga0:3
- 09/21/25La Liga1:1
- 05/18/25La Liga2:1
- 01/10/25La Liga2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10
Athletic Bilbao62227:68
Athletic Bilbao62227:6811
Getafe72234:78
Getafe72234:7812Rayo Vallecano722311:168
Rayo Vallecano722311:16813
Osasuna72236:138
Osasuna72236:13814Celta Vigo71428:67
Celta Vigo71428:6715
Espanyol721410:107
Espanyol721410:10716
Racing Santander721411:217
Racing Santander721411:217Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.