Both teams to score
Yes51%
ours 1.97
No49%
ours 2.03
All matches
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Getafe — Rayo Vallecano, La Liga
Spain, La Liga
Getafe
1.7WLDDL
Rayo Vallecano
2.4DWLWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
42%27%31%
Getafe42%Draw27%Rayo Vallecano31%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Getafe2.37—
XDraw3.70—
2Rayo Vallecano3.25—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricGetafeRayo VallecanoCombined
Goals scored0.501.502.00
Conceded0.502.172.67
Corners9.812.211.0
Cards3.52.45.9
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
GetafeRayo Vallecano
Getafe Club de Fútbol 42%, Rayo Vallecano 31%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
Getafe Club de Fútbol 42%Draw 27%Rayo Vallecano 31%
1st half
33 · 42 · 24
2nd half
32 · 40 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Getafe
- homeMalaga1:0
- awayReal Betis0:1
- homeDeportivo La Coruna1:1
- homeCelta Vigo1:1
- awayOsasuna0:1
Rayo Vallecano
- awayOsasuna1:1
- homeEspanyol2:1
- awayReal Madrid1:4
- homeRacing Santander3:2
- awayBarcelona2:5
Head to head
- 05/03/26La Liga0:2
- 01/02/26La Liga1:1
- 05/02/25La Liga0:1
- 08/24/24La Liga0:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9
Villarreal722313:128
Villarreal722313:12810
Athletic Bilbao62227:68
Athletic Bilbao62227:6811Getafe72234:78
Getafe72234:7812Rayo Vallecano722311:168
Rayo Vallecano722311:16813
Osasuna72236:138
Osasuna72236:13814
Celta Vigo71428:67
Celta Vigo71428:67Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.