Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.82
No45%
ours 2.22
All matches
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Celtic — Celta Vigo, UEFA Europa League
Europe, UEFA Europa League
Celtic
3.6LLWWW
Celta Vigo
2.2WLDDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
32%27%41%
Celtic32%Draw27%Celta Vigo41%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Celtic3.11—
XDraw3.70—
2Celta Vigo2.45—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricCelticCelta VigoCombined
Goals scored0.331.001.33
Conceded0.670.331.00
Corners13.08.710.8
Cards1.31.32.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
CelticCelta Vigo
Celtic FC 32%, Real Club Celta de Vigo 41%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
Celtic FC 32%Draw 27%Real Club Celta de Vigo 41%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Celtic
- homeRangers0:1
- homeFerencvaros1:3
- awaySaint Johnstone1:0
- awaySt. Mirren2:1
- homeAberdeen3:0
Celta Vigo
- homeRacing Santander5:0
- awayOmonia0:1
- homeMalaga1:1
- awayGetafe1:1
- awayReal Sociedad0:0
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
58
Levski Sofia10010:10
Levski Sofia10010:1059
AZ Alkmaar10010:10
AZ Alkmaar10010:1060Celta Vigo10010:10
Celta Vigo10010:1061
Derry City20023:50
Derry City20023:5062Celtic10011:30
Celtic10011:3063
Celje10010:20
Celje10010:2064
Hoffenheim10010:20
Hoffenheim10010:20Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.