Rayo Vallecano — Elche CF, La Liga

Spain, La LigaOctober 24 at 12:00 PM

Rayo Vallecano

2.4DWLWL

—

Elche CF

2.0WLDLL

Outcome probability

542521

Rayo Vallecano54%Draw25%Elche CF21%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Rayo Vallecano54%1.85—

XDraw25%4.05—

2Elche CF21%4.68—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.80

No45%

ours 2.24

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricRayo VallecanoElche CFCombined

Goals scored1.171.332.50

Conceded1.331.332.66

Corners11.88.510.1

Cards2.83.36.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Rayo VallecanoElche CF
12Table position18
4.7Days of rest6.9
52.80%Possession45.50%
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Rayo Vallecano look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 54%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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