All matches

Elche — Celta Vigo, La Liga

Spain, La Liga

Elche
2.0WLDLL
—
Celta Vigo
2.2WLDDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
42%26%32%
ElcheMarket 2.9342%DrawMarket 3.3326%Celta VigoMarket 2.6832%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Elche42%34%2.362.93+8.2
XDraw26%30%3.903.33-4.4
2Celta Vigo32%37%3.122.68-5.3

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.73book 1.76

No42%

ours 2.37book 1.97

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricElcheCelta VigoCombined
Goals scored1.671.172.84
Conceded2.670.833.50
Corners8.89.89.3
Cards2.51.54.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

ElcheCelta Vigo

Elche CF 42%, Real Club Celta de Vigo 32%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

Elche CF 42%Draw 26%Real Club Celta de Vigo 32%
1st half
36 · 39 · 25
2nd half
34 · 36 · 30

Bookmakers: 2.93 · 3.33 · 2.68

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

68%1.53
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Elche

  • awayEspanyol3:1
  • homeReal Madrid2:3
  • awayAthletic Bilbao1:1
  • homeReal Sociedad2:3
  • awayRacing Santander2:3

Celta Vigo

  • homeRacing Santander5:0
  • awayOmonia0:1
  • homeMalaga1:1
  • awayGetafe1:1
  • awayReal Sociedad0:0

Head to head

  • 05/03/26La Liga1:3
  • 09/28/25La Liga2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
12Rayo Vallecano722311:168
13Osasuna72236:138
14Celta Vigo71428:67
15Espanyol721410:107
16Racing Santander721411:217
17Levante61238:125
18Elche712411:175
19Valencia71154:134
20Malaga70343:123

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.