All matches

Celta Vigo — Juventus, UEFA Europa League

Europe, UEFA Europa League

Celta Vigo
2.2WLDDD
—
Juventus
3.2WWLDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
31%27%42%
Celta Vigo31%Draw27%Juventus42%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Celta Vigo31%3.24—
XDraw27%3.64—
2Juventus42%2.40—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.89

No47%

ours 2.13

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCelta VigoJuventusCombined
Goals scored1.172.003.17
Conceded0.500.671.17
Corners9.68.69.1
Cards1.81.43.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Celta VigoJuventus

Real Club Celta de Vigo 31%, Juventus FC 42%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.

Real Club Celta de Vigo 31%Draw 27%Juventus FC 42%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Away or draw

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Celta Vigo

  • homeRacing Santander5:0
  • awayOmonia0:1
  • homeMalaga1:1
  • awayGetafe1:1
  • awayReal Sociedad0:0

Juventus

  • homeAtalanta2:0
  • homeNEC Nijmegen5:0
  • awaySassuolo2:3
  • homeAC Milan1:1
  • homeParma2:0

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
22Thun41127:124
23Sheriff41121:64
24Juventus11005:03
25Crystal Palace11004:03
26Sparta Prague11004:13
27Union Saint-Gilloise11003:03
28Bayer Leverkusen11002:03
29Bournemouth11002:13
30Lyon11002:13
31Olympiakos11002:13
32Torreense11002:13
33Sunderland11001:03
34Red Star Belgrade21014:53
35Sint-Truiden21013:43
36Zilina21012:33
37Viktoria Plzen31025:73
38Shamrock Rovers21014:63
39Vikingur Reykjavik21013:53
40Kauno Zalgiris21011:33
41St. Gallen21012:63
42U Cluj20200:02
43Dynamo Kyiv40222:52
44Hapoel Be'er Sheva10100:01
45Sturm Graz10100:01
46Rennes10100:01
47Dinamo Zagreb10100:01
48Twente20113:41
49KuPS20112:31
50Rangers20112:31
51Lincoln Red Imps20111:21
52Larne20111:21
53Gornik Zabrze20111:21
54Aluminij20110:11
55Hammarby20112:41
56Hearts20112:71
57Real Sociedad10011:20
58Levski Sofia10010:10
59AZ Alkmaar10010:10
60Celta Vigo10010:10
61Derry City20023:50
62Celtic10011:30

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.