Both teams to score
Yes52%
ours 1.94
No48%
ours 2.07
All matches
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Olancho — Lobos UPNFM, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras
Honduras, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras
Olancho
2.1DDDLD
Lobos UPNFM
1.3WWLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
58%26%16%
Olancho58%Draw26%Lobos UPNFM16%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Olancho1.73—
XDraw3.80—
2Lobos UPNFM6.29—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricOlanchoLobos UPNFMCombined
Goals scored0.170.500.67
Conceded0.170.000.17
Corners8.511.09.8
Cards0.00.00.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
OlanchoLobos UPNFM
Olancho FC 58%, Lobos UPNFM 16%. The safest is “Olancho FC or draw” at 82%.
Olancho FC 58%Draw 26%Lobos UPNFM 16%
1st half
44 · 40 · 16
2nd half
36 · 41 · 23
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 1.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Olancho
- awayPolicia National0:0
- homeReal Espana1:1
- awayAtletico Choloma0:0
- awayMotagua1:2
- homeOlimpia1:1
Lobos UPNFM
- awayPlatense2:0
- homeAtletico Choloma1:0
- awayReal Espana0:2
- awayJuticalpa0:1
- awayMotagua1:4
Head to head
- 08/08/26Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras1:1
- 03/24/26Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras1:2
- 02/02/26Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras1:1
- 11/08/25Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras1:1
- 09/10/25Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4
Motagua841311:813
Motagua841311:8135
Policia National832310:611
Policia National832310:6116Olancho82516:511
Olancho82516:5117
Estrella Roja823313:169
Estrella Roja823313:1698
Atletico Independiente82337:119
Atletico Independiente82337:1199Lobos UPNFM82247:128
Lobos UPNFM82247:12810
Atletico Choloma82156:87
Atletico Choloma82156:8711
Juticalpa82068:196
Juticalpa82068:196Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.