Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.85
No46%
ours 2.18
All matches
Lobos UPNFM — Policía Nacional, Liga Nacional
Honduras, Liga Nacional
Lobos UPNFM
1.7WDWWL
Policía Nacional
1.7LLLDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
40%31%29%
Lobos UPNFM40%Draw31%Policía Nacional29%
Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lobos UPNFM2.52—
XDraw3.25—
2Policía Nacional3.39—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
Combos — with Premium
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with Premium.
72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 2904 matches
Corners
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 2896 matches
Cards
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 2886 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Lobos UPNFMPolicía Nacional
Lobos UPNFM 40%, Policía Nacional 29%. The safest is “Lobos UPNFM or draw” at 72%.
Lobos UPNFM 40%Draw 31%Policía Nacional 29%
1st half
34 · 42 · 24
2nd half
27 · 45 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with Premium
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLobos UPNFMPolicía NacionalCombined
Goals scored1.400.602.00
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Lobos UPNFM- 4 clean sheets in the last 54:0, 0:0, 2:0, 1:0, 0:2
- Unbeaten at home in 5 matches0:0, 1:0, 2:2, 1:1, 2:1
- Won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings0:1, 2:0, 3:2, 2:1, 1:1
Policía Nacional- 3 defeats in a row2:3, 1:2, 0:1, 0:0, 0:1
- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches7 goals conceded
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Lobos UPNFM
- awayAtletico Independiente4:0
- homeMarathon0:0
- awayPlatense2:0
- homeAtletico Choloma1:0
- awayReal Espana0:2
Policía Nacional
- awayAtletico Choloma2:3
- homeEstrella Roja1:2
- homeOlimpia0:1
- homeOlancho0:0
- awayMotagua0:1
Head to head
- 04/23/26Liga Nacional0:1
- 03/02/26Liga Nacional2:0
- 09/27/25Liga Nacional3:2
- 07/23/25Liga Nacional2:1
- 03/12/25Liga Nacional1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6
Atletico Choloma1141612:1313
Atletico Choloma1141612:13137
Estrella Roja1134418:2113
Estrella Roja1134418:21138
Lobos UPNFM1033411:1212
Lobos UPNFM1033411:12129
Policía Nacional1132613:1211
Policía Nacional1132613:121110
Atletico Independiente102448:1610
Atletico Independiente102448:161011
Platense102268:218
Platense102268:218Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.