Both teams to score
Yes53%
ours 1.90
No47%
ours 2.11
All matches
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Lobos UPNFM — Marathon, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras
Honduras, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras
Lobos UPNFM
1.3WWLLL
Marathon
2.8LWWWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
27%27%46%
Lobos UPNFM27%Draw27%Marathon46%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lobos UPNFM3.74—
XDraw3.65—
2Marathon2.18—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLobos UPNFMMarathonCombined
Goals scored1.002.003.00
Conceded1.500.832.33
Corners9.510.810.2
Cards0.00.00.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Lobos UPNFMMarathon
Lobos UPNFM 27%, CD Marathón 46%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
Lobos UPNFM 27%Draw 27%CD Marathón 46%
1st half
29 · 41 · 31
2nd half
25 · 42 · 34
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Lobos UPNFM
- awayPlatense2:0
- homeAtletico Choloma1:0
- awayReal Espana0:2
- awayJuticalpa0:1
- awayMotagua1:4
Marathon
- awayJuticalpa2:3
- homeOlimpia1:0
- homeEstrella Roja5:0
- awayPolicia National2:1
- homeReal Espana1:1
Head to head
- 03/14/26Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras0:2
- 01/25/26Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras1:1
- 12/04/25Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras0:2
- 09/18/25Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras2:2
- 05/04/25Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras0:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Real Espana853013:418
Real Espana853013:4182
Olimpia852119:717
Olimpia852119:7173Marathon852114:617
Marathon852114:6174
Motagua841311:813
Motagua841311:8135
Policia National832310:611
Policia National832310:6116
Olancho82516:511
Olancho82516:5117
Estrella Roja823313:169
Estrella Roja823313:1698
Atletico Independiente82337:119
Atletico Independiente82337:1199Lobos UPNFM82247:128
Lobos UPNFM82247:12810
Atletico Choloma82156:87
Atletico Choloma82156:8711
Juticalpa82068:196
Juticalpa82068:196Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.