Both teams to score
Yes52%
ours 1.94
No48%
ours 2.06
All matches
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Olancho — Atletico Independiente, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras
Honduras, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras
Olancho
2.1DDDLD
Atletico Independiente
1.8LWDLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
56%27%17%
Olancho56%Draw27%Atletico Independiente17%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Olancho1.79—
XDraw3.71—
2Atletico Independiente5.84—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricOlanchoAtletico IndependienteCombined
Goals scored0.670.831.50
Conceded0.671.502.17
Corners8.011.29.6
Cards0.00.20.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
OlanchoAtletico Independiente
Olancho FC 56%, Atlético Independiente 17%. The safest is “Olancho FC or draw” at 84%.
Olancho FC 56%Draw 27%Atlético Independiente 17%
1st half
48 · 38 · 14
2nd half
35 · 41 · 24
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Olancho
- awayPolicia National0:0
- homeReal Espana1:1
- awayAtletico Choloma0:0
- awayMotagua1:2
- homeOlimpia1:1
Atletico Independiente
- awayOlimpia0:4
- homeJuticalpa2:1
- homeMotagua0:0
- awayPlatense1:2
- homePolicia National1:1
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4
Motagua841311:813
Motagua841311:8135
Policia National832310:611
Policia National832310:6116Olancho82516:511
Olancho82516:5117
Estrella Roja823313:169
Estrella Roja823313:1698Atletico Independiente82337:119
Atletico Independiente82337:1199
Lobos UPNFM82247:128
Lobos UPNFM82247:12810
Atletico Choloma82156:87
Atletico Choloma82156:87Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.