Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.83
No45%
ours 2.21
All matches
—
Atletico Independiente — Lobos UPNFM, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras
Honduras, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras
Atletico Independiente
1.8LWDLD
Lobos UPNFM
1.3WWLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
47%28%24%
Atletico Independiente47%Draw28%Lobos UPNFM24%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Atletico Independiente2.11—
XDraw3.56—
2Lobos UPNFM4.08—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAtletico IndependienteLobos UPNFMCombined
Goals scored0.670.671.34
Conceded1.331.172.50
Corners10.69.810.2
Cards0.20.00.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Atletico IndependienteLobos UPNFM
Atlético Independiente 47%, Lobos UPNFM 24%. The safest is “No draw” at 72%.
Atlético Independiente 47%Draw 28%Lobos UPNFM 24%
1st half
33 · 40 · 27
2nd half
33 · 42 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 1.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Atletico Independiente
- awayOlimpia0:4
- homeJuticalpa2:1
- homeMotagua0:0
- awayPlatense1:2
- homePolicia National1:1
Lobos UPNFM
- awayPlatense2:0
- homeAtletico Choloma1:0
- awayReal Espana0:2
- awayJuticalpa0:1
- awayMotagua1:4
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6
Olancho82516:511
Olancho82516:5117
Estrella Roja823313:169
Estrella Roja823313:1698Atletico Independiente82337:119
Atletico Independiente82337:1199Lobos UPNFM82247:128
Lobos UPNFM82247:12810
Atletico Choloma82156:87
Atletico Choloma82156:8711
Juticalpa82068:196
Juticalpa82068:196Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.