Lincoln City 1:2 Swansea City, Championship: result, stats and how the prediction went
Result and how the prediction went
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Line-upsLincoln City3-4-2-1—Swansea City4-3-3
Starting line-ups and substitutes. Usually out about an hour before kick-off.
Lincoln City3-4-2-1
Coach: Chris Cohen
Starting XI
1GKG. Wickens
25DFD. Elerewe
6DFR. Towler
15MFS. Bradley
4DFA. Coubiș
8MFT. Bayliss
14MFC. McGrandles
3MFA. Reach
7FWR. Hackett
18FWB. House
34FWF. Draper
Substitutes
29FWE. Wheatley
24MFI. Varfolomeev
17FWR. Street
33DFD. Oyegoke
27FWC. Ogbene
11FWM. Ladefoged
26MFY. Konak
16MF
D. Jefferies46GKJ. Gauci
Swansea City4-3-3
Coach: Vítor Matos
Starting XI
22GKL. Vigouroux
26DFF. Lissah
5DF
B. Cabango23DFS. Welsh
14DFJ. Tymon
8FWE. Just
6MFM. Stamenić
46MFS. Eustáquio
49MFM. Yeo
33FWA. Idah
7MFM. Widell
Substitutes
9FWZ. Vipotnik
3DFJ. Seelt
35FWRonald
20DFTiago Parente
30FWJoseph Okopu
16MFTom Iorpenda
4MFJ. Fulton
17MFGonçalo Franco
1GKA. Fisher
Match stats
How the match went in numbers.
How the forecast did
In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.
- Match result MissedDraw38%
Actual: Swansea City — we had 27%
- Total goals MissedUnder 2.579%
Actual: Over 2.5 — we had 21%
- Both teams to score MissedNo70%
Actual: Yes — we had 30%
The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.
Model and prices
Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
Big gap with the price. The price usually reflects something the model doesn’t know: a new team in the league, few matches, line-ups. Not a tip.
our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed
Form and context
Lincoln City
- homeBirmingham City1:3
- homeBurnley4:1
- awayMillwall2:2
- homeWest Ham0:6
- awaySheffield United0:3
Swansea City
- homeBlackburn Rovers4:0
- awayQPR0:5
- homeWest Ham0:1
- awayMillwall1:0
- homeNorwich City2:1
Head to head
- 09/19/26Championship1:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
More matches in this competition
England, Championship: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.


