All matches

Lincoln City 1:2 Swansea City, Championship: result, stats and how the prediction went

Result and how the prediction went

England, ChampionshipMatch finished

1.7LWDLL
1:2HT 1:0
2.2WLLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
36%38%27%
Lincoln CityPrice 2.9436%DrawPrice 3.2038%Swansea CityPrice 2.4027%
Line-upsLincoln City3-4-2-1—Swansea City4-3-3

Starting line-ups and substitutes. Usually out about an hour before kick-off.

Lincoln City3-4-2-1Swansea City4-3-3

Lincoln City3-4-2-1

Coach: Chris Cohen

Starting XI

  • 1GKEnglandG. Wickens
  • 25DFEnglandD. Elerewe
  • 6DFEnglandR. Towler
  • 15MFEnglandS. Bradley
  • 4DFRomaniaA. Coubiș
  • 8MFEnglandT. Bayliss
  • 14MFScotlandC. McGrandles
  • 3MFEnglandA. Reach
  • 7FWSt. LuciaR. Hackett
  • 18FWScotlandB. House
  • 34FWEnglandF. Draper

Substitutes

  • 29FWEnglandE. Wheatley
  • 24MFUkraineI. Varfolomeev
  • 17FWEnglandR. Street
  • 33DFEnglandD. Oyegoke
  • 27FWRepublic of IrelandC. Ogbene
  • 11FWDenmarkM. Ladefoged
  • 26MFTürkiyeY. Konak
  • 16MFWalesD. Jefferies
  • 46GKAustraliaJ. Gauci

Swansea City4-3-3

Coach: Vítor Matos

Starting XI

  • 22GKChileL. Vigouroux
  • 26DFEnglandF. Lissah
  • 5DFWalesB. Cabango
  • 23DFScotlandS. Welsh
  • 14DFEnglandJ. Tymon
  • 8FWNew ZealandE. Just
  • 6MFNew ZealandM. Stamenić
  • 46MFCanadaS. Eustáquio
  • 49MFMaliM. Yeo
  • 33FWRepublic of IrelandA. Idah
  • 7MFSwedenM. Widell

Substitutes

  • 9FWSloveniaZ. Vipotnik
  • 3DFNetherlandsJ. Seelt
  • 35FWBrazilRonald
  • 20DFPortugalTiago Parente
  • 30FWGhanaJoseph Okopu
  • 16MFEnglandTom Iorpenda
  • 4MFScotlandJ. Fulton
  • 17MFPortugalGonçalo Franco
  • 1GKEnglandA. Fisher

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

1.33xG1.16
32Possession, %68
13Shots10
4Shots on target4
2Corners0
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
12Fouls11
4Offsides0

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

0 of 3
Main predictions landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast types: landed 69 of 99void — 1
  • Match result Missed
    Draw38%

    Actual: Swansea City — we had 27%

  • Total goals Missed
    Under 2.579%

    Actual: Over 2.5 — we had 21%

  • Both teams to score Missed
    No70%

    Actual: Yes — we had 30%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Lincoln City36%32%2.792.94+4.2
XDraw38%29%2.663.20+8.7
2Swansea City27%39%3.772.40-12.8

Big gap with the price. The price usually reflects something the model doesn’t know: a new team in the league, few matches, line-ups. Not a tip.

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Form and context

Lincoln City

  • homeBirmingham City1:3
  • homeBurnley4:1
  • awayMillwall2:2
  • homeWest Ham0:6
  • awaySheffield United0:3

Swansea City

  • homeBlackburn Rovers4:0
  • awayQPR0:5
  • homeWest Ham0:1
  • awayMillwall1:0
  • homeNorwich City2:1

Head to head

  • 09/19/26Championship1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Middlesbrough1384130:1728
2Southampton1383228:1327
3Swansea City1382320:1326
4Wolverhampton1373323:1624
5West Bromwich1373319:1424
6Birmingham City1365223:1323
7Stoke City1372420:1623
8West Ham1364333:1822
9QPR1355321:1620
10Sheffield United1354417:1519
11Portsmouth1354416:1519
12Millwall1353523:2118
13Blackburn Rovers1353519:2018
14Bristol City1353515:1718
15Norwich City1350823:2415
16Lincoln City1343614:2315
17Cardiff City1335519:2014
18Wrexham1335515:1914

Full breakdown

Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.