FC Thun — FC Lugano, Super League

Switzerland, Super LeagueOctober 25 at 01:00 PM

FC Thun

2.2WLLLD

—

FC Lugano

3.1WWDWW

Outcome probability

282547

FC Thun28%Draw25%FC Lugano47%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Thun28%3.62—

XDraw25%3.97—

2FC Lugano47%2.12—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.70

No41%

ours 2.44

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC ThunFC LuganoCombined

Goals scored0.671.672.34

Conceded1.000.501.50

Corners12.38.310.3

Cards3.03.06.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC ThunFC Lugano
9Table position1
52.00%Possession59.30%
2.8Days of rest2.8
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, FC Lugano still look stronger — an away win is rated at 47%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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