FC Lugano — FC Luzern, Super League

Switzerland, Super LeagueOctober 10 at 04:00 PM

FC Lugano

3.1WWDWW

—

FC Luzern

1.9WLDWD

Outcome probability

602118

FC Lugano60%Draw21%FC Luzern18%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Lugano60%1.65—

XDraw21%4.71—

2FC Luzern18%5.46—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.63

No39%

ours 2.59

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC LuganoFC LuzernCombined

Goals scored2.672.335.00

Conceded0.831.672.50

Corners9.810.310.1

Cards3.22.55.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC LuganoFC Luzern
1Table position6
56.80%Possession45.70%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FC Lugano look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 60%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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