All matches

FC Zürich — FC Thun, Super League

Switzerland, Super League

FC Zürich
1.2DWDLW
—
FC Thun
2.2WLLLD
Outcome probability
282547
FC Zürich28%Draw25%FC Thun47%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Zürich28%3.56—
XDraw25%4.03—
2FC Thun47%2.13—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes65%

ours 1.55

No35%

ours 2.82

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC ZürichFC ThunCombined
Goals scored1.831.673.50
Conceded2.002.004.00
Corners9.811.210.5
Cards2.52.75.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC ZürichFC Thun
    7Table position9
    46.20%Possession49.30%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, FC Thun still look stronger — an away win is rated at 47%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Away or draw

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC Zürich

  • awayFC Sion1:1
  • homeFC Vaduz2:1
  • awayGrasshopper Club Zürich2:2
  • homeBSC Young Boys2:4
  • awayFC Lausanne Sport3:2

FC Thun

  • awayFC Vaduz2:1
  • homeServette FC2:4
  • homeGrasshopper Club Zürich0:1
  • awayFC Sion2:3
  • homeFC Lausanne Sport0:0

Head to head

  • 03/21/26Super League2:1
  • 12/20/25Super League2:4
  • 08/23/25Super League0:4

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5FC Sankt Gallen 1879941416:1913
6FC Luzern933317:1812
7FC Zürich932414:2011
8Servette FC931511:1310
9FC Thun931515:2310
10Grasshopper Club Zürich922513:248
11FC Vaduz920718:216

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.