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Lausanne 0:4 Lugano, Super League: result, stats and how the prediction went

Result and how the prediction went

Switzerland, Super LeagueMatch finished

1.2LLLLL
0:4HT 0:1
3.0WWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
24%27%49%
LausannePrice 3.6424%DrawPrice 3.7627%LuganoPrice 1.8949%

Line-upsThe data provider has not sent line-ups for this match.

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

0.94xG2.15
29Possession, %71
7Shots21
4Shots on target5
1Corners6
3Yellow cards3
1Red cards0
13Fouls10
3Offsides1

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

2 of 3
Main predictions landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast types: landed 64 of 100
  • Match result Landed
    Lugano49%
  • Total goals Missed
    Under 2.555%

    Actual: Over 2.5 — we had 45%

  • Both teams to score Landed
    No51%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Lausanne24%25%4.243.64-1.5
XDraw27%24%3.693.76+2.8
2Lugano49%51%2.031.89-1.3

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Form and context

Lausanne

  • homeThun4:5
  • awaySion0:1
  • awaySt. Gallen0:1
  • homeLugano0:4
  • homeServette0:1

Lugano

  • homeBasel2:1
  • awayThun3:2
  • awayGetafe5:2
  • homeRed Star Belgrade3:2
  • homeLuzern4:0

Head to head

  • 09/20/26Super League0:4
  • 02/22/26Super League1:2
  • 12/07/25Super League0:0
  • 09/17/25Super League1:1
  • 05/18/25Super League1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Lugano12111036:1034
2Young Boys1274138:2325
3Sion1272325:1823
4Zurich1262425:2620
5St. Gallen1261519:2219
6Servette1251617:1616
7Basel1242618:2214
8Luzern1234519:2513
9Thun1241724:3413
10Vaduz1231824:2510
11Grasshopper1224615:2810
12Lausanne1213811:226

Full breakdown

Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.