All matches

FC Lugano — Red Star Belgrade, UEFA Europa Conference League

Europe, UEFA Europa Conference League

FC Lugano
3.1WWDWW
—
Red Star Belgrade
4.1WWWDW
Outcome probability
382735
FC Lugano38%Draw27%Red Star Belgrade35%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Lugano38%2.62—
XDraw27%3.75—
2Red Star Belgrade35%2.84—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.76

No43%

ours 2.31

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC LuganoRed Star BelgradeCombined
Goals scored2.331.333.66
Conceded0.670.331.00
Corners9.48.28.8
Cards3.22.65.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC LuganoRed Star Belgrade
    5Days of rest5.7
    59.80%Possession65.00%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FC Lugano look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 38%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC Lugano

  • awayFC Lausanne Sport4:0
  • homeFC Sankt Gallen 18794:1
  • homeBSC Young Boys2:2
  • awayFC Basel 18933:1
  • homeServette FC1:0

Red Star Belgrade

  • homeFK Radnički Niš3:0
  • awayFK Železničar Pančevo2:1
  • awayFK IMT Novi Beograd1:0
  • awayFK Radnik Surdulica0:0
  • homeFK Partizan Beograd2:1

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4SK Rapid Wien642019:814
5FC København642017:614
6FC Lugano642013:514
7Sporting Braga64208:014
8Riga FC642012:614

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.