All matches

Zurich — St. Gallen, Super League

Switzerland, Super League

1.5WWDWD
  
2.3LWWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
30%25%46%
Zurich30%Draw25%St. Gallen46%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market

Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Zurich30%3.38—
XDraw25%4.01—
2St. Gallen46%2.20—

our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes62%

ours 1.61

No38%

ours 2.65

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Goals and corners — with Premium

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Combos — with Premium

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Confident answers

The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3725 matches

Corners

This market opens with Premium.

71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3714 matches

Cards

This market opens with Premium.

71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3703 matches

Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

ZurichSt. Gallen

FC Zürich 30%, FC Sankt Gallen 1879 46%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

FC Zürich 30%Draw 25%FC Sankt Gallen 1879 46%
1st half
31 · 38 · 31
2nd half
26 · 31 · 44
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with Premium

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total fouls: Over 24.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with Premium

Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricZurichSt. GallenCombined
Goals scored2.201.003.20
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other nine metrics — with Premium

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Insights

What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.

Zurich
  • Unbeaten in 5 matches2:1, 4:2, 1:1, 2:1, 2:2
  • 11 goals in the last 5 matches2:1, 4:2, 1:1, 2:1, 2:2
  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 52:1, 4:2, 1:1, 2:1, 2:2
St. Gallen
  • Most shots in the league — 19.3 per match12 teams in the league
  • Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches10 goals conceded
  • Won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings2:1, 2:1, 1:2, 1:3, 3:2

Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.

Form and context

Zurich

  • homeLuzern2:1
  • homeThun4:2
  • awaySion1:1
  • homeVaduz2:1
  • awayGrasshopper2:2

St. Gallen

  • awayYoung Boys0:2
  • homeLausanne1:0
  • awayBasel3:1
  • awayLugano1:4
  • homeSion0:3

Head to head

  • 07/26/26Super League1:2
  • 04/06/26Super League1:2
  • 12/06/25Super League2:1
  • 09/27/25Super League3:1
  • 05/17/25Super League2:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Young Boys1174035:1825
3Sion1171324:1722
4Zurich1152420:2317
5Servette1151516:1416
6St. Gallen1151517:2116
7Basel1142517:2014
8Luzern1133518:2412

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with Premium

Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.