Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.82
No45%
ours 2.22
All matches
—
Melgar — Comerciantes Unidos, Primera División
Peru, Primera División
Melgar
2.9DWWLD
Comerciantes Unidos
1.3LLDLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
70%20%10%
Melgar70%Draw20%Comerciantes Unidos10%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Melgar1.44—
XDraw5.01—
2Comerciantes Unidos9.57—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricMelgarComerciantes UnidosCombined
Goals scored0.830.501.33
Conceded0.170.831.00
Corners13.010.711.8
Cards1.01.72.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
MelgarComerciantes Unidos
FBC Melgar 70%, CD Comerciantes Unidos 10%. The safest is “FBC Melgar or draw” at 88%.
FBC Melgar 70%Draw 20%CD Comerciantes Unidos 10%
1st half
55 · 33 · 12
2nd half
42 · 37 · 21
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Melgar
- homeSport Boys1:1
- awayReal Garcilaso1:0
- homeDeportivo Tarma3:0
- awayAtletico Grau0:1
- homeAlianza Lima1:1
Comerciantes Unidos
- awayAlianza Atletico Sullana1:2
- homeSport Huancayo0:1
- awayUniversitario de Deportes2:2
- homeCajamarca2:3
- awayUT Cajamarca3:1
Head to head
- 05/10/26Primera División1:1
- 09/27/25Primera División1:1
- 05/02/25Primera División1:1
- 09/07/24Primera División3:0
- 03/02/24Primera División0:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
Universitario de Deportes27147643:3149
Universitario de Deportes27147643:31493
Garcilaso27146739:2448
Garcilaso27146739:24484Melgar27137745:2946
Melgar27137745:29465
Real Garcilaso271431040:3845
Real Garcilaso271431040:38456
Los Chankas27126936:4542
Los Chankas27126936:45427
Cienciano271251046:4041
Cienciano271251046:40418
Alianza Atletico Sullana27117940:3540
Alianza Atletico Sullana27117940:35409
Sporting Cristal271151148:4038
Sporting Cristal271151148:403810
Sport Boys27108929:2638
Sport Boys27108929:263811
Sport Huancayo271051237:4435
Sport Huancayo271051237:443512
Juan Pablo II27971142:5234
Juan Pablo II27971142:523413
Atletico Grau27951326:3132
Atletico Grau27951326:313214Comerciantes Unidos27791135:3830
Comerciantes Unidos27791135:383015
Cajamarca27761441:5227
Cajamarca27761441:522716
Deportivo Tarma27671429:4225
Deportivo Tarma27671429:4225Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.