All matches

Club Sporting Cristal SAC — CD Comerciantes Unidos, Primera División

Peru, Primera División

Club Sporting Cristal SAC
2.7WWWLL
—
CD Comerciantes Unidos
1.3LLDLW
Outcome probability
7217
Club Sporting Cristal SAC72%Draw17%CD Comerciantes Unidos11%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Club Sporting Cristal SAC72%1.39—
XDraw17%5.76—
2CD Comerciantes Unidos11%9.28—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.91

No48%

ours 2.10

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClub Sporting Cristal SACCD Comerciantes UnidosCombined
Goals scored1.831.333.16
Conceded1.001.502.50
Corners13.210.611.9
Cards2.21.43.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Club Sporting Cristal SACCD Comerciantes Unidos
    9Table position14
    6.9Days of rest7.8
    51.60%Possession50.40%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Club Sporting Cristal SAC: a home win is rated at 72%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Match result: Home

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Club Sporting Cristal SAC

  • homeClub Atlético Grau3:1
  • awayUCV Moquegua2:1
  • homeLos Chankas5:0
  • awaySport Boys Association0:1
  • awayClub Alianza Atlético Sullana1:3

CD Comerciantes Unidos

  • awayClub Alianza Atlético Sullana1:2
  • homeCD Sport Huancayo0:1
  • awayClub Universitario de Deportes2:2
  • homeFC Cajamarca2:3
  • awayCCyD Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca3:1

Head to head

  • 04/25/26Primera División0:1
  • 11/01/25Primera División4:1
  • 06/29/25Primera División2:0
  • 11/03/24Primera División3:0
  • 05/25/24Primera División1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7Club Cienciano261241045:3940
8Club Alianza Atlético Sullana27117940:3540
9Club Sporting Cristal SAC271151148:4038
10Sport Boys Association27108929:2638
11CD Sport Huancayo271051237:4435
12Juan Pablo II College27971142:5234
13Club Atlético Grau27951326:3132
14CD Comerciantes Unidos27791135:3830
15FC Cajamarca27761441:5227
16Asociación Deportiva Tarma27671429:4225

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.