All matches

UT Cajamarca — Melgar, Primera División

Peru, Primera División

UT Cajamarca
0.7LLLLL
—
Melgar
2.9DWWLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
24%22%54%
UT Cajamarca24%Draw22%Melgar54%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1UT Cajamarca24%4.22—
XDraw22%4.45—
2Melgar54%1.86—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.69

No41%

ours 2.45

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricUT CajamarcaMelgarCombined
Goals scored1.170.832.00
Conceded2.000.332.33
Corners8.510.89.6
Cards3.51.04.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

UT CajamarcaMelgar

CCyD Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca 24%, FBC Melgar 54%. The safest is “No draw” at 77%.

CCyD Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca 24%Draw 22%FBC Melgar 54%
1st half
24 · 37 · 40
2nd half
27 · 37 · 36
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 2.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

UT Cajamarca

  • awaySport Huancayo2:3
  • homeJuan Pablo II1:2
  • awayAlianza Atletico Sullana2:3
  • homeUniversitario de Deportes2:4
  • homeComerciantes Unidos1:3

Melgar

  • homeSport Boys1:1
  • awayReal Garcilaso1:0
  • homeDeportivo Tarma3:0
  • awayAtletico Grau0:1
  • homeAlianza Lima1:1

Head to head

  • 05/03/26Primera División0:2
  • 07/19/25Primera División1:2
  • 02/08/25Primera División0:3
  • 10/22/24Primera División0:1
  • 05/12/24Primera División2:6

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Universitario de Deportes27147643:3149
3Garcilaso27146739:2448
4Melgar27137745:2946
5Real Garcilaso271431040:3845
6Los Chankas27126936:4542
7Cienciano271251046:4041
8Alianza Atletico Sullana27117940:3540
9Sporting Cristal271151148:4038
10Sport Boys27108929:2638
11Sport Huancayo271051237:4435
12Juan Pablo II27971142:5234
13Atletico Grau27951326:3132
14Comerciantes Unidos27791135:3830
15Cajamarca27761441:5227
16Deportivo Tarma27671429:4225
17UCV Moquegua27671424:4125
18UT Cajamarca27481532:5020

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.