All matches

Melgar — Garcilaso, Primera División

Peru, Primera División

Melgar
2.9DWWLD
—
Garcilaso
2.4WLWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
57%24%19%
Melgar57%Draw24%Garcilaso19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Melgar57%1.76—
XDraw24%4.16—
2Garcilaso19%5.23—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.77

No43%

ours 2.30

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMelgarGarcilasoCombined
Goals scored1.002.173.17
Conceded0.500.671.17
Corners9.612.010.8
Cards1.42.03.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

MelgarGarcilaso

FBC Melgar 57%, Club Deportivo Garcilaso 19%. The safest is “FBC Melgar or draw” at 82%.

FBC Melgar 57%Draw 24%Club Deportivo Garcilaso 19%
1st half
42 · 40 · 18
2nd half
43 · 35 · 22
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 11.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Melgar

  • homeSport Boys1:1
  • awayReal Garcilaso1:0
  • homeDeportivo Tarma3:0
  • awayAtletico Grau0:1
  • homeAlianza Lima1:1

Garcilaso

  • homeUniversitario de Deportes4:0
  • awaySport Boys0:1
  • homeAtletico Grau4:2
  • awayAlianza Lima1:0
  • homeReal Garcilaso4:1

Head to head

  • 04/28/26Primera División0:1
  • 09/19/25Primera División1:1
  • 04/18/25Primera División1:2
  • 11/03/24Primera División1:1
  • 05/25/24Primera División3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Alianza Lima27168344:1856
2Universitario de Deportes27147643:3149
3Garcilaso27146739:2448
4Melgar27137745:2946
5Real Garcilaso271431040:3845
6Los Chankas27126936:4542

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.