Comerciantes Unidos — Juan Pablo II, Primera División

Peru, Primera DivisiónOctober 10 at 08:30 PM

Comerciantes Unidos

1.3LLDLW

—

Juan Pablo II

1.5WWDWW

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

49%25%26%

Comerciantes UnidosMarket 1.8349%DrawMarket 3.5625%Juan Pablo IIMarket 3.9626%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Comerciantes Unidos49%55%2.031.83-5.3

XDraw25%28%3.983.56-2.9

2Juan Pablo II26%25%3.913.96+0.3

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.71book 1.68

No42%

ours 2.40book 2.06

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricComerciantes UnidosJuan Pablo IICombined

Goals scored1.332.674.00

Conceded1.671.333.00

Corners9.77.88.8

Cards1.71.73.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Comerciantes UnidosJuan Pablo II

CD Comerciantes Unidos 49%, Juan Pablo II College 26%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

CD Comerciantes Unidos 49%Draw 25%Juan Pablo II College 26%

1st half

36 · 38 · 26

2nd half

36 · 39 · 25

Bookmakers: 1.83 · 3.56 · 3.96

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

71%1.21

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context