Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.76book 1.85
No43%
ours 2.31book 1.85
All matches
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Universitario de Deportes — Melgar, Primera División
Peru, Primera División
Universitario de Deportes
3.6LWDWW
Melgar
2.9DWWLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
54%25%21%
Universitario de DeportesMarket 1.8054%DrawMarket 3.0825%MelgarMarket 5.0121%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Universitario de Deportes1.841.80-1.3
XDraw4.083.08-8.0
2Melgar4.715.01+1.3
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricUniversitario de DeportesMelgarCombined
Goals scored2.331.503.83
Conceded1.830.502.33
Corners9.09.79.3
Cards2.71.34.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Universitario de DeportesMelgar
Club Universitario de Deportes 54%, FBC Melgar 21%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
Club Universitario de Deportes 54%Draw 24%FBC Melgar 21%
1st half
34 · 40 · 26
2nd half
39 · 38 · 23
Bookmakers: 1.80 · 3.08 · 5.01
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
69%1.26
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Universitario de Deportes
- awayGarcilaso0:4
- awayAlianza Lima2:1
- homeComerciantes Unidos2:2
- awayUT Cajamarca4:2
- homeLos Chankas3:0
Melgar
- homeSport Boys1:1
- awayReal Garcilaso1:0
- homeDeportivo Tarma3:0
- awayAtletico Grau0:1
- homeAlianza Lima1:1
Head to head
- 04/19/26Primera División1:2
- 09/14/25Primera División2:1
- 04/14/25Primera División4:1
- 08/01/24Primera División0:1
- 02/18/24Primera División2:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Alianza Lima27168344:1856
Alianza Lima27168344:18562Universitario de Deportes27147643:3149
Universitario de Deportes27147643:31493
Garcilaso27146739:2448
Garcilaso27146739:24484Melgar27137745:2946
Melgar27137745:29465
Real Garcilaso271431040:3845
Real Garcilaso271431040:38456
Los Chankas27126936:4542
Los Chankas27126936:4542Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.