Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.71
No41%
ours 2.41
All matches
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Estrella Roja — Atletico Independiente, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras
Honduras, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras
Estrella Roja
1.8LDLDW
Atletico Independiente
1.8LWDLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
52%27%21%
Estrella Roja52%Draw27%Atletico Independiente21%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Estrella Roja1.92—
XDraw3.75—
2Atletico Independiente4.72—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricEstrella RojaAtletico IndependienteCombined
Goals scored0.330.330.66
Conceded1.500.832.33
Corners12.09.010.5
Cards0.00.30.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Estrella RojaAtletico Independiente
Estrella Roja 52%, Atlético Independiente 21%. The safest is “Estrella Roja or draw” at 81%.
Estrella Roja 52%Draw 27%Atlético Independiente 21%
1st half
40 · 40 · 20
2nd half
43 · 35 · 22
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Most cards: Draw
68%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Estrella Roja
- awayAtletico Choloma0:2
- homePlatense2:2
- awayMarathon0:5
- homeOlimpia2:2
- homeJuticalpa5:2
Atletico Independiente
- awayOlimpia0:4
- homeJuticalpa2:1
- homeMotagua0:0
- awayPlatense1:2
- homePolicia National1:1
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5
Policia National832310:611
Policia National832310:6116
Olancho82516:511
Olancho82516:5117Estrella Roja823313:169
Estrella Roja823313:1698Atletico Independiente82337:119
Atletico Independiente82337:1199
Lobos UPNFM82247:128
Lobos UPNFM82247:12810
Atletico Choloma82156:87
Atletico Choloma82156:87Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.