Both teams to score
Yes53%
ours 1.89
No47%
ours 2.12
All matches
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Atletico Independiente — Marathon, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras
Honduras, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras
Atletico Independiente
1.8LWDLD
Marathon
2.8LWWWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
28%28%44%
Atletico Independiente28%Draw28%Marathon44%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Atletico Independiente3.52—
XDraw3.60—
2Marathon2.28—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAtletico IndependienteMarathonCombined
Goals scored0.501.672.17
Conceded1.170.671.84
Corners9.510.810.1
Cards0.30.00.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Atletico IndependienteMarathon
Atlético Independiente 28%, CD Marathón 44%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
Atlético Independiente 28%Draw 28%CD Marathón 44%
1st half
25 · 39 · 35
2nd half
26 · 42 · 32
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Atletico Independiente
- awayOlimpia0:4
- homeJuticalpa2:1
- homeMotagua0:0
- awayPlatense1:2
- homePolicia National1:1
Marathon
- awayJuticalpa2:3
- homeOlimpia1:0
- homeEstrella Roja5:0
- awayPolicia National2:1
- homeReal Espana1:1
Head to head
- 08/04/26Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Real Espana853013:418
Real Espana853013:4182
Olimpia852119:717
Olimpia852119:7173Marathon852114:617
Marathon852114:6174
Motagua841311:813
Motagua841311:8135
Policia National832310:611
Policia National832310:6116
Olancho82516:511
Olancho82516:5117
Estrella Roja823313:169
Estrella Roja823313:1698Atletico Independiente82337:119
Atletico Independiente82337:1199
Lobos UPNFM82247:128
Lobos UPNFM82247:12810
Atletico Choloma82156:87
Atletico Choloma82156:87Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.