Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.74
No43%
ours 2.35
All matches
—
Policía Nacional — Estrella Roja, Liga Nacional
Honduras, Liga Nacional
Policía Nacional
1.8LDLWL
Estrella Roja
1.8LLDLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
40%31%29%
Policía Nacional40%Draw31%Estrella Roja29%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Policía Nacional2.51—
XDraw3.23—
2Estrella Roja3.42—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Combos
Three kinds of combos — the most likely combination in each. The most likely of the three is highlighted. Every combination is in the tables below.
Combos come with a subscription: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
Sign upConfident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1377 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1376 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1368 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Policía NacionalEstrella Roja
Policía Nacional 40%, Estrella Roja 29%. The safest is “No draw” at 72%.
Policía Nacional 40%Draw 31%Estrella Roja 29%
1st half
30 · 48 · 22
2nd half
29 · 37 · 34
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: No draw
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPolicía NacionalEstrella RojaCombined
Goals scored0.831.502.33
Conceded0.832.173.00
Corners11.212.011.6
Cards0.00.00.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Form and context
Policía Nacional
- homeOlimpia0:1
- homeOlancho0:0
- awayMotagua0:1
- awayJuticalpa3:0
- homeMarathon1:2
Estrella Roja
- homeReal Espana0:1
- awayAtletico Choloma0:2
- homePlatense2:2
- awayMarathon0:5
- homeOlimpia2:2
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3
Marathon953114:618
Marathon953114:6184
Motagua951313:916
Motagua951313:9165Policía Nacional932410:711
Policía Nacional932410:7116
Olancho82516:511
Olancho82516:5117Estrella Roja923413:179
Estrella Roja923413:1798
Atletico Independiente82337:119
Atletico Independiente82337:1199
Lobos UPNFM92347:129
Lobos UPNFM92347:129Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.