Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.79
No44%
ours 2.26
All matches
Policía Nacional — Atletico Independiente, Liga Nacional
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
49%30%22%
Policía Nacional49%Draw30%Atletico Independiente22%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Policía Nacional2.06—
XDraw3.39—
2Atletico Independiente4.55—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
Combos — with Premium
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3612 matches
Corners
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3602 matches
Cards
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72%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3593 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Policía NacionalAtletico Independiente
Policía Nacional 49%, Atlético Independiente 22%. The safest is “Policía Nacional or draw” at 78%.
Policía Nacional 49%Draw 30%Atlético Independiente 22%
1st half
47 · 37 · 16
2nd half
40 · 37 · 23
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 7.5
72%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPolicía NacionalAtletico IndependienteCombined
Goals scored0.401.001.40
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Policía Nacional- Winless at home in 4 matches1:2, 0:1, 0:0, 1:2, 3:0
- 3 defeats in a row1:3, 1:2, 0:1, 0:0, 0:1
- Only 2 goals in the last 5 matches1:3, 1:2, 0:1, 0:0, 0:1
Atletico Independiente- Winless away in 5 matches1:1, 0:4, 1:2, 1:1, 0:1
- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches12 goals conceded
- Fewest shots on target in the league — 3.3 per match12 teams in the league
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Policía Nacional
- awayAtletico Choloma1:3
- homeEstrella Roja1:2
- homeOlimpia0:1
- homeOlancho0:0
- awayMotagua0:1
Atletico Independiente
- homeMarathon2:2
- homeLobos UPNFM0:4
- awayOlancho1:1
- awayOlimpia0:4
- homeJuticalpa2:1
Head to head
- 08/22/26Liga Nacional1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Honduras, Liga Nacional: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.