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Atletico Choloma vs Estrella Roja: result 2:0

Honduras, Liga NacionalMatch finished

Final score 2:0. Before kick-off VARStats gave: Estrella Roja 51%, Atletico Choloma 28%, draw 21%.

2:0HT 0:0
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
28%21%51%
Atletico CholomaPrice 2.4328%DrawPrice 3.2021%Estrella RojaPrice 2.5151%

Line-upsThe data provider has not sent line-ups for this match.

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

2.32xG1.99
56Possession, %44
18Shots18
7Shots on target5
1Corners4
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
20Fouls14
1Offsides1

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

0 of 3
Main predictions landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast types: landed 64 of 99void — 1
  • Match result Missed
    Estrella Roja51%

    Actual: Atletico Choloma — we had 28%

  • Total goals Missed
    Over 2.578%

    Actual: Under 2.5 — we had 22%

  • Both teams to score Missed
    Yes76%

    Actual: No — we had 24%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Atletico Choloma28%37%3.542.43-8.8
XDraw21%27%4.813.20-6.4
2Estrella Roja51%36%1.962.51+15.3

Big gap with the price. The price usually reflects something the model doesn’t know: a new team in the league, few matches, line-ups. Not a tip.

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Form and context

Atletico Choloma

  • homeOlimpia0:3
  • homePolicía Nacional3:1
  • awayJuticalpa2:1
  • awayMotagua1:2
  • homeEstrella Roja2:0

Estrella Roja

  • homeAtletico Independiente3:1
  • awayOlancho3:3
  • awayPolicía Nacional2:1
  • homeReal Espana0:1
  • awayAtletico Choloma0:2

Head to head

  • 09/19/26Liga Nacional2:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Marathon1264218:1122
5Olancho1237215:1216
6Estrella Roja1244421:2216
7Lobos UPNFM1243515:1615
8Atletico Choloma1241712:1513
9Policía Nacional1232715:1611

Full breakdown

Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.