Both teams to score
Yes44%
ours 2.27
No56%
ours 1.79
All matches
Athletic Bilbao — Espanyol, La Liga
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
61%24%15%
Athletic Bilbao61%Draw24%Espanyol15%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Athletic Bilbao1.63—
XDraw4.19—
2Espanyol6.79—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3839 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3828 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3818 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Athletic BilbaoEspanyol
Athletic Club Bilbao 61%, Reial Club Deportiu Espanyol 15%. The safest is “Athletic Club Bilbao or draw” at 85%.
Athletic Club Bilbao 61%Draw 24%Reial Club Deportiu Espanyol 15%
1st half
42 · 44 · 14
2nd half
52 · 30 · 18
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
71%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAthletic BilbaoEspanyolCombined
Goals scored1.200.802.00
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Athletic Bilbao- 3 clean sheets in the last 54:0, 1:3, 0:0, 0:0, 1:1
- Unbeaten at home in 4 matches4:0, 0:0, 1:1, 3:0, 1:3
- One win in the last 5 matches4:0, 1:3, 0:0, 0:0, 1:1
Espanyol- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches7 goals conceded
- One win in the last 5 matches1:0, 1:2, 0:1, 1:1, 1:3
- 2nd in the league for yellow cards — 3.2 per match20 teams in the league
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Athletic Bilbao
- homeGetafe4:0
- awayLevante1:3
- awayValencia0:0
- homeAlaves0:0
- homeElche1:1
Espanyol
- awayVillarreal1:0
- awayRacing Santander1:2
- homeAtletico Madrid0:1
- awayMalaga1:1
- homeElche1:3
Head to head
- 05/13/26La Liga0:2
- 12/22/25La Liga1:2
- 02/16/25La Liga1:1
- 10/19/24La Liga4:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Spain, La Liga: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.