Sevilla FC — CA Osasuna, La Liga

Spain, La LigaOctober 26 at 08:00 PM

Sevilla FC

1.6LWWDL

—

CA Osasuna

1.7DLLLW

Outcome probability

502724

Sevilla FC50%Draw27%CA Osasuna24%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Sevilla FC50%2.01—

XDraw27%3.75—

2CA Osasuna24%4.23—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes47%

ours 2.15

No53%

ours 1.87

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSevilla FCCA OsasunaCombined

Goals scored0.670.501.17

Conceded0.672.002.67

Corners6.57.06.8

Cards2.32.34.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Sevilla FCCA Osasuna
5Table position13
42.00%Possession45.00%
8Days of rest8.3
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Sevilla FC: a home win is rated at 50%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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