All matches

FC Barcelona — Real Madrid CF, La Liga

Spain, La Liga

FC Barcelona
4.5WWWWW
—
Real Madrid CF
4.0LWWWL
Outcome probability
642016
FC Barcelona64%Draw20%Real Madrid CF16%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Barcelona64%1.55—
XDraw20%4.98—
2Real Madrid CF16%6.45—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes69%

ours 1.45

No31%

ours 3.20

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC BarcelonaReal Madrid CFCombined
Goals scored1.670.672.34
Conceded0.500.671.17
Corners11.05.58.3
Cards1.52.03.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC BarcelonaReal Madrid CF
    1Table position4
    69.00%Possession41.50%
    5Days of rest4
    3Matches in 14 days3
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FC Barcelona look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 64%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Goal in both halves: Yes

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC Barcelona

  • awaySevilla FC3:1
  • homeReal Racing Club de Santander7:2
  • awayLevante UD4:2
  • homeFeyenoord Rotterdam5:1
  • awayValencia CF5:0

Real Madrid CF

  • awayClub Atlético de Madrid1:2
  • awayElche CF3:2
  • homeRayo Vallecano4:1
  • homeFC Internazionale Milano2:1
  • awayReal Betis Balompié0:1

Head to head

  • 05/10/26La Liga2:0
  • 10/26/25La Liga1:2
  • 05/11/25La Liga4:3
  • 10/26/24La Liga4:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1FC Barcelona770031:721
2Club Atlético de Madrid751116:716
3Real Betis Balompié75119:716
4Real Madrid CF750218:815
5Sevilla FC741210:913
6Deportivo Alavés732211:611

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.