Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.84
No46%
ours 2.19
All matches
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Barcelona — Alaves, La Liga
Spain, La Liga
Barcelona
4.5WWWWW
Alaves
1.7DLLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
81%14%
Barcelona81%Draw14%Alaves5%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Barcelona1.24—
XDraw6.93—
2Alaves20.79—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricBarcelonaAlavesCombined
Goals scored0.500.170.67
Conceded0.170.500.67
Corners4.07.75.8
Cards0.01.31.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
BarcelonaAlaves
FC Barcelona 81%, Deportivo Alavés 5%. The safest is “FC Barcelona or draw” at 93%.
FC Barcelona 81%Draw 14%Deportivo Alavés 5%
1st half
52 · 34 · 14
2nd half
59 · 27 · 14
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Goal in both halves: Yes
67%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Barcelona
- awaySevilla3:1
- homeRacing Santander7:2
- awayLevante4:2
- homeFeyenoord5:1
- awayValencia5:0
Alaves
- awayAthletic Bilbao0:0
- homeValencia0:1
- awayRacing Santander1:2
- homeOsasuna5:2
- homeVillarreal1:0
Head to head
- 05/13/26La Liga0:1
- 11/29/25La Liga3:1
- 02/02/25La Liga1:0
- 10/06/24La Liga3:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Barcelona770031:721
Barcelona770031:7212
Atletico Madrid751116:716
Atletico Madrid751116:7163
Real Betis75119:716
Real Betis75119:7164
Real Madrid750218:815
Real Madrid750218:8155
Sevilla741210:913
Sevilla741210:9136Alaves732211:611
Alaves732211:6117
Deportivo La Coruna724110:810
Deportivo La Coruna724110:8108
Real Sociedad73139:1310
Real Sociedad73139:1310Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.