Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.71
No41%
ours 2.42
All matches
—
Villarreal — Espanyol, La Liga
Spain, La Liga
Villarreal
2.5WWLLL
Espanyol
1.5LLWDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
66%21%13%
Villarreal66%Draw21%Espanyol13%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Villarreal1.53—
XDraw4.75—
2Espanyol7.47—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricVillarrealEspanyolCombined
Goals scored0.500.671.17
Conceded0.170.831.00
Corners8.07.07.5
Cards1.02.03.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
VillarrealEspanyol
Villarreal CF 66%, Reial Club Deportiu Espanyol 13%. The safest is “Villarreal CF or draw” at 83%.
Villarreal CF 66%Draw 21%Reial Club Deportiu Espanyol 13%
1st half
51 · 33 · 16
2nd half
40 · 35 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 7.5
68%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Villarreal
- homeLevante3:1
- awayMalaga3:1
- homeReal Betis1:2
- awayBorussia Dortmund2:3
- homeDeportivo La Coruna2:3
Espanyol
- homeElche1:3
- awayRayo Vallecano1:2
- awayOsasuna2:0
- homeSevilla1:1
- awayReal Sociedad1:2
Head to head
- 02/09/26La Liga4:1
- 11/08/25La Liga2:0
- 04/27/25La Liga1:0
- 09/26/24La Liga2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7
Deportivo La Coruna724110:810
Deportivo La Coruna724110:8108
Real Sociedad73139:1310
Real Sociedad73139:13109Villarreal722313:128
Villarreal722313:12810
Athletic Bilbao62227:68
Athletic Bilbao62227:6811
Getafe72234:78
Getafe72234:7812
Rayo Vallecano722311:168
Rayo Vallecano722311:16813
Osasuna72236:138
Osasuna72236:13814
Celta Vigo71428:67
Celta Vigo71428:6715Espanyol721410:107
Espanyol721410:10716
Racing Santander721411:217
Racing Santander721411:21717
Levante61238:125
Levante61238:125Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.