Both teams to score
Yes64%
ours 1.57
No36%
ours 2.76
All matches
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Monaco — Freiburg, UEFA Europa Conference League
Europe, UEFA Europa Conference League
Monaco
2.8WDWWW
Freiburg
2.7DWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
52%23%25%
Monaco52%Draw23%Freiburg25%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Monaco1.93—
XDraw4.37—
2Freiburg3.93—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricMonacoFreiburgCombined
Goals scored0.831.332.16
Conceded0.500.330.83
Corners8.38.38.3
Cards1.02.03.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
MonacoFreiburg
AS Monaco FC 52%, SC Freiburg 25%. The safest is “No draw” at 77%.
AS Monaco FC 52%Draw 23%SC Freiburg 25%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Over 2.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Monaco
- homeLens2:1
- awayStrasbourg1:1
- awayPSG2:1
- homeMarseille2:0
- homeGornik Zabrze4:1
Freiburg
- awayEintracht Frankfurt2:2
- homeBorussia Monchengladbach5:0
- awayPaderborn1:0
- homeWerder Bremen4:1
- homeMotherwell4:1
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
48
Nomme Kalju42117:87
Nomme Kalju42117:8749
DAC Dunajska Streda42117:97
DAC Dunajska Streda42117:9750Freiburg22007:26
Freiburg22007:2651
St. Gallen420210:66
St. Gallen420210:6652Monaco22007:36
Monaco22007:3653
Ujvara42029:66
Ujvara42029:6654
GKS Katowice42026:66
GKS Katowice42026:66Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.