All matches

Monaco — Toulouse, Ligue 1

France, Ligue 1

Monaco
2.8WDWWW
—
Toulouse
1.8WDLDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
55%23%21%
MonacoMarket 1.6555%DrawMarket 4.4723%ToulouseMarket 5.4421%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Monaco55%61%1.811.65-5.4
XDraw23%22%4.314.47+0.8
2Toulouse21%18%4.665.44+3.1

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.67book 1.61

No40%

ours 2.48book 2.19

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMonacoToulouseCombined
Goals scored2.001.173.17
Conceded0.671.502.17
Corners9.29.69.4
Cards1.51.63.1
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

MonacoToulouse

AS Monaco FC 55%, Toulouse FC 21%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

AS Monaco FC 55%Draw 23%Toulouse FC 21%
1st half
38 · 38 · 24
2nd half
38 · 36 · 26

Bookmakers: 1.65 · 4.47 · 5.44

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 2.5

70%1.26
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Monaco

  • homeLens2:1
  • awayStrasbourg1:1
  • awayPSG2:1
  • homeMarseille2:0
  • homeGornik Zabrze4:1

Toulouse

  • homeLe Havre3:2
  • awayLorient2:2
  • homeLille0:1
  • awayBrest2:2
  • homeLyon0:2

Head to head

  • 04/25/26Ligue 12:2
  • 10/25/25Ligue 11:0
  • 03/07/25Ligue 11:1
  • 12/07/24Ligue 12:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Monaco54108:313
2Lyon532010:211
3Paris FC53208:311
4Lille53118:410
5Rennes53118:910
6PSG52218:78
7Angers52126:57
8Strasbourg521210:107
9Le Mans51319:96
10Auxerre52037:126
11Brest51227:85
12Lorient51225:65
13Toulouse51227:95
14Nice51223:65
15Lens51139:94

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.