FC Lorient — AS Monaco FC, Ligue 1

France, Ligue 1October 18 at 03:15 PM

FC Lorient

1.9LDWLD

—

AS Monaco FC

2.8WDWWW

Outcome probability

312643

FC Lorient31%Draw26%AS Monaco FC43%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Lorient31%3.23—

XDraw26%3.92—

2AS Monaco FC43%2.30—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.83

No45%

ours 2.20

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC LorientAS Monaco FCCombined

Goals scored0.831.172.00

Conceded1.000.501.50

Corners7.69.38.4

Cards1.01.82.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC LorientAS Monaco FC
12Table position1
7.9Days of rest2.9
1Matches in 14 days2
48.00%Possession43.50%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
AS Monaco FC travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 43%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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