Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.78
No44%
ours 2.28
All matches
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CSKA Sofia — Monaco, UEFA Europa Conference League
Europe, UEFA Europa Conference League
CSKA Sofia
3.0DWWDW
Monaco
2.8WDWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
12%17%71%
CSKA Sofia12%Draw17%Monaco71%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1CSKA Sofia8.60—
XDraw5.81—
2Monaco1.41—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricCSKA SofiaMonacoCombined
Goals scored1.831.833.66
Conceded0.670.671.34
Corners8.28.88.5
Cards2.01.43.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
CSKA SofiaMonaco
PFC CSKA Sofia 12%, AS Monaco FC 71%. The safest is “AS Monaco FC or draw” at 88%.
PFC CSKA Sofia 12%Draw 17%AS Monaco FC 71%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Match result: Away
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
CSKA Sofia
- awayLokomotiv Plovdiv1:1
- awayLokomotiv Sofia2:0
- homeArda4:1
- awaySpartak Varna1:1
- homeCherno More3:1
Monaco
- homeLens2:1
- awayStrasbourg1:1
- awayPSG2:1
- homeMarseille2:0
- homeGornik Zabrze4:1
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
50
Freiburg22007:26
Freiburg22007:2651
St. Gallen420210:66
St. Gallen420210:6652Monaco22007:36
Monaco22007:3653
Ujvara42029:66
Ujvara42029:6654
GKS Katowice42026:66
GKS Katowice42026:66Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.