SC Freiburg — FC Schalke 04, Bundesliga

Germany, BundesligaOctober 11 at 03:30 PM

SC Freiburg

2.7DWWWW

—

FC Schalke 04

2.4DWDLW

Outcome probability

472826

SC Freiburg47%Draw28%FC Schalke 0426%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1SC Freiburg47%2.13—

XDraw28%3.62—

2FC Schalke 0426%3.91—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes43%

ours 2.35

No57%

ours 1.74

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSC FreiburgFC Schalke 04Combined

Goals scored3.170.673.84

Conceded0.831.172.00

Corners9.09.89.4

Cards1.31.22.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
SC FreiburgFC Schalke 04
3Table position11
57.20%Possession44.20%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
SC Freiburg look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 47%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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