SC Freiburg — FK Jablonec , UEFA Europa Conference League

Europe, UEFA Europa Conference LeagueOctober 15 at 07:00 PM

SC Freiburg

2.7DWWWW

—

FK Jablonec

2.5DLWLD

Outcome probability

7118

SC Freiburg71%Draw18%FK Jablonec 11%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1SC Freiburg71%1.41—

XDraw18%5.55—

2FK Jablonec 11%9.16—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.97

No49%

ours 2.03

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSC FreiburgFK Jablonec Combined

Goals scored2.671.003.67

Conceded0.671.001.67

Corners8.810.09.4

Cards1.41.22.6

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
SC FreiburgFK Jablonec
50Table position13
4.1Days of rest5.3
56.60%Possession57.20%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour SC Freiburg: a home win is rated at 71%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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