Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.68
No40%
ours 2.47
All matches
—
Wrexham — Middlesbrough, Championship
England, Championship
Wrexham
2.1WLDDW
Middlesbrough
2.3DDWWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
38%26%36%
Wrexham38%Draw26%Middlesbrough36%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Wrexham2.64—
XDraw3.88—
2Middlesbrough2.75—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricWrexhamMiddlesbroughCombined
Goals scored0.330.330.66
Conceded0.170.330.50
Corners5.08.06.5
Cards1.00.01.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
WrexhamMiddlesbrough
Wrexham FC 38%, Middlesbrough FC 36%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
Wrexham FC 38%Draw 26%Middlesbrough FC 36%
1st half
31 · 37 · 32
2nd half
30 · 38 · 32
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
67%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Wrexham
- homeSouthampton2:1
- awayWest Ham0:6
- homeBurnley1:1
- awaySwansea City0:0
- awayMillwall3:0
Middlesbrough
- awayBirmingham City2:2
- homeMillwall2:2
- homeNorwich City4:3
- awayQPR1:0
- awayBurnley1:1
Head to head
- 05/02/26Championship2:2
- 10/25/25Championship1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Swansea City852113:617
Swansea City852113:6172
West Ham843122:1115
West Ham843122:11153Middlesbrough843116:1215
Middlesbrough843116:12154
Southampton842219:1014
Southampton842219:10145
Wolverhampton742115:1014
Wolverhampton742115:10146
West Bromwich842210:814
West Bromwich842210:8147
QPR834110:713
QPR834110:7138
Stoke City841313:1213
Stoke City841313:12139
Bristol City841311:1213
Bristol City841311:121310
Charlton Athletic83327:1012
Charlton Athletic83327:101211
Birmingham City825112:1111
Birmingham City825112:111112
Millwall832315:1511
Millwall832315:151113
Lincoln City83237:811
Lincoln City83237:81114Wrexham82429:1210
Wrexham82429:121015
Bolton Wanderers831411:1510
Bolton Wanderers831411:151016
Blackburn Rovers823312:129
Blackburn Rovers823312:129Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.