All matches

Middlesbrough FC — Wolverhampton Wanderers FC, Championship

England, Championship

Middlesbrough FC
2.3DDWWD
—
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC
1.1WWDLW
Outcome probability
462727
Middlesbrough FC46%Draw27%Wolverhampton Wanderers FC27%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Middlesbrough FC46%2.17—
XDraw27%3.68—
2Wolverhampton Wanderers FC27%3.72—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.66

No40%

ours 2.51

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMiddlesbrough FCWolverhampton Wanderers FCCombined
Goals scored2.172.174.34
Conceded1.501.332.83
Corners10.811.010.9
Cards1.21.02.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Middlesbrough FCWolverhampton Wanderers FC
    3Table position5
    55.80%Possession53.20%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Middlesbrough FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 46%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 8.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Middlesbrough FC

  • awayBirmingham City FC2:2
  • homeMillwall FC2:2
  • homeNorwich City FC4:3
  • awayQueens Park Rangers FC1:0
  • awayBurnley FC1:1

Wolverhampton Wanderers FC

  • homeWest Bromwich Albion FC1:0
  • awaySheffield United FC1:0
  • awayBirmingham City FC2:2
  • awayWest Ham United FC2:4
  • homeStoke City FC4:1

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Swansea City AFC852113:617
2West Ham United FC843122:1115
3Middlesbrough FC843116:1215
4Southampton FC842219:1014
5Wolverhampton Wanderers FC742115:1014
6West Bromwich Albion FC842210:814
7Queens Park Rangers FC834110:713

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.