Derby County FC — Wrexham FC, Championship

England, ChampionshipOctober 10 at 02:00 PM

Derby County FC

1.5DLLLW

—

Wrexham FC

2.1WLDDW

Outcome probability

372934

Derby County FC37%Draw29%Wrexham FC34%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Derby County FC37%2.69—

XDraw29%3.47—

2Wrexham FC34%2.94—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.82

No45%

ours 2.22

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricDerby County FCWrexham FCCombined

Goals scored0.671.171.84

Conceded1.671.673.34

Corners12.26.89.5

Cards1.70.82.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Derby County FCWrexham FC
22Table position14
50.50%Possession49.00%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Derby County FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 37%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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