All matches

Stoke City — Middlesbrough, Championship

England, Championship

Stoke City
1.3WWDWW
—
Middlesbrough
2.3DDWWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
33%25%42%
Stoke City33%Draw25%Middlesbrough42%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Stoke City33%3.05—
XDraw25%3.93—
2Middlesbrough42%2.39—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.70

No41%

ours 2.42

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricStoke CityMiddlesbroughCombined
Goals scored1.671.673.34
Conceded0.501.331.83
Corners10.010.410.2
Cards2.21.43.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Stoke CityMiddlesbrough

Stoke City FC 33%, Middlesbrough FC 42%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

Stoke City FC 33%Draw 25%Middlesbrough FC 42%
1st half
34 · 37 · 29
2nd half
27 · 38 · 36
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Stoke City

  • homeSheffield United2:1
  • awayWatford2:1
  • awayCardiff City1:1
  • homeCharlton Athletic4:0
  • homeNorwich City1:0

Middlesbrough

  • awayBirmingham City2:2
  • homeMillwall2:2
  • homeNorwich City4:3
  • awayQPR1:0
  • awayBurnley1:1

Head to head

  • 01/21/26Championship1:2
  • 09/30/25Championship0:0
  • 02/25/25Championship1:3
  • 09/28/24Championship0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Swansea City852113:617
2West Ham843122:1115
3Middlesbrough843116:1215
4Southampton842219:1014
5Wolverhampton742115:1014
6West Bromwich842210:814
7QPR834110:713
8Stoke City841313:1213
9Bristol City841311:1213
10Charlton Athletic83327:1012

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.